More than a year has passed since Saudi Arabia spearheaded a coalition of Arab countries to intervene inside Yemen in a bid to restore the exiled-government of Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi.
Throughout this period, the government forces could only manage to retake the southern provinces of Aden, Lahj, Shabwa, Abyan, and Dhale from the Houthi forces.
A few months later, the Saudis and their allies launched an invasion from the province of Ma’rib in attempt to push towards Sana’a, hoping to topple the Houthi government.
At the same time, their military campaign also risked allowing Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) to fill in the security vacuum.
Since July 2015, sporadic bombings and assassination attempts against high profile politicians have taken place as a result of AQAP’s presence inside of the port-city of Aden.
More importantly, the dire situation in post-Houthi Aden has yet to improve, despite promises made by the Hadi loyalists.
Power outages have become an everyday problem for the suffering residents of Aden.
Reports stating that one of the main reasons behind these blackouts was due to the Hadi government’s expulsion of a US power firm due to a financial dispute, resulting the Americans leaving the country.
However, power outages are not the only things plaguing the Yemeni people, hundreds of thousands of people remain unemployed and several thousand government workers remain unpaid.
Meanwhile, further north, the Coalition-led Hadi forces only managed to take control of the the symbolic provincial capitals of the Al-Hazm, Al-Jawf, and Ma’rib governorates.
When they attempted to reach Jabal Nihm in northeast Sana’a, they found themselves deadlocked with the Houthi forces.
The Houthi forces and their allies have still managed to maintain control of most of the Yemeni provinces in the north, including the nation’s capital.
While Saudi Arabia says they are launching military airstrikes to “restore hope” (hence the operation name “Operation Restoring Hope”), the only result from Saudi-led coalition airstrikes has been death and destruction.
Thousands of civilians, including women and children have been killed by these indiscriminate airstrikes.
Yemen’s infrastructure has been reduced to rubble as a result of the Saudi airstrikes.
Millions of civilians have been displaced, with others facing starvation and dehydration.
This disastrous war has been mainly caused by the ambitious and overzealous Saudi deputy crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, who wants to improve his family’s legacy to make Saudi Arabia a regional power in Middle East.
So far, the Saudi-led Coalition forces have been rather unimpressive and relatively weak, despite boasting the 3rd highest military expenditures in the world.
According to the Saudi whistleblower
@ Mujtahidd, Mohammed bin Salman is facing a moral dilemma because ending the war would appear like a victory for the Houthis.
With the quagmire becoming far more apparent in Yemen, bin Salman is desperate to find a respectful end to the Saudi war in Yemen.
Now, bin Salman has decided to completely abandoned the U.N sponsored ceasefire in favor of forcing the Houthis to surrender their weapons and cities to the Yemeni government.
The source stated that bin Salman’s campaign has cost the Saudis a large number of personnel, putting the death toll as high as 4,000 killed while battling the Yemeni forces.
Hundreds of billions of dollars in materials have also been lost in the process.
Mohammed bin Salman reportedly manipulated United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.) to allow AQAP to expand in Yemen.
As a result, Abu Dhabi decided to abandon the Saudi contingency in favor of coordination with the southern forces that are led by Shallal Shaye and the US in order to combat AQAP in southeastern part of the country.
Washington reportedly blamed bin Salman for causing this AQAP disaster in the first place.
Many international groups and NGOs have also been critical of the Saudi military campaign in Yemen, saying it is responsible for 90% of the civilian deaths, injuries, and displacement.
NGOs and human rights groups have pressured Western government to stop Saudi Arabia’s war on Yemen.
Mujtahidd argues that if the Saudi Army continues with the problems they are facing now; it could play a role in King Salman’s downfall.
Hence, it is this reason that bin Salman wants to quickly end Saudi quagmire campaign on Yemen.
However, there is a problem with this; if Saudis decided to end the war by making peace with Houthis; it would require them to recognize them as the main political force in Yemen.
It would also attract accusations of betrayal from the Hadi government.
The ambitious deputy crown prince is now facing several problems that do not appear to be going away any time soon; this includes ending the war in a way that retains the Saudi Army’s dignity.
Due to this reason, Mujtahidd tweets that there would be two possible scenarios to forego this conclusion: either the Saudi military campaign continues, with the possibility of the Houthi-led forces expanding their control over Saudi territory; or he could eventually abandon the Hadi government and the anti-Houthi forces completely and make a comprehensive deal with the Houthis in Yemen.
Either way, it appears that Saudi leadership did not expect that this disastrous quagmire would occur due to their miscalculation of the Yemen war.
It remains to be seen if this would impact Saudi Arabia’s political, economical, and militaristic influence.